Case for functional cities
Koyna warned, Mumbai ignored

The earthquakes, in Koyna that rocked Mumbai in the sixties, and Gujarat recently, tend to make foolproof the case for functional cities. Which are defined as cities with no private property. No time to lose as the entire sub-continent is now placed in danger-zone. The dispersal of private dwelling units far and away from urban centres also could further the cause of broad-based economic development.

The Koyna disaster triggered an intelligent debate on the future of urban infrastructure. As geologists refused to underwrite the safety of Mumbai. Which, they said, was perched precariously on an insecure rock formation.

Corruption then there was. But was not so deep-rooted as today. The discussions were not merely academic. Even bureaucrats took active part in them. Media was liberal with space. Enabling everyone to look at the problem from different angles.

The consensus was against multi-storeyed buildings. No more of them was the popular outcry. There was even a suggestion to take the state capital out of the city. To reduce its congestion. The question of relocating industries also was mooted then.

But Koyna was forgetten no sooner than the headlines it spawned. The construction of multi-storeyed buildings was not only not discouraged but became the rule. The old small tenements (of which there were many) were uprooted to make space for taller ones.
There was thrill when sq. ft space rose ten or twenty fold in prices. Almost everyone owning a small flat could be called a millionaire. The sale/purchase of big ticket property made news. Bureaucrats and political leaders added fuel to the fire (of speculation) buying up expensive flats in congested areas. 

The boom was checkmated by two factors. One was the stern action taken by the Income Tax Department. And then the recessionary trends seen in the second half of the nineties.
The IT department pre-empted the purchase of properties which it thought were undervalued. For a while it looked tough. None could take it for granted that a piece of land or a flat could be easily sold. Without attracting scrutiny by the tax men.

Then the recession struck. Real estate prices drifted south. It was thought that normalcy was not far away. But it proved to be mirage. Speculators returned in strength. And property prices were back on track for the pre-cook (1995) levels. New construction projects also are in place.
Gujarat followed Mumbai. Especially, Ahmedabad, the capital city. High-rise buildings show-cased the prosperity of the upcoming state. No one was in a mood ever to take due note of warnings. The entire region was classified as zone V, or high fault area. Construction norms allowed only two-storied buildings. Never more than that. The high rise buildings came up flouting the geological do's and dont's. And they accounted for the maximum number of casualties when the earth gave way.

How they do it in quake-prone areas in US? Back in January 1994, Los Angeles had an equally devastating earthquake. Measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale. As against 6.9 in Gujarat. A more densely populated area. Even so, the death toll was a mere 57.

The US is rich. But that is not the only reason for such low level of casualties. There in (Los Angeles) the building rules permit only two-storeyed or three-storeyed structures. High-rise buildings are special cases. But they come under stiff regulations.

The construction code insists that the foundation (of tall buildings) are routinely reinforced and retro-filted. Walls are two-layered. The space in between are often filled with rubber to absorb shocks. Furniture and fittings are duly secured by safety straps.

In India, the blueprint for functional cities never left academic circles. Mumbai hosted a few seminars on the issue in the wake of the Koyna disaster. One of them was graced by the presence of the late Sarvodaya leader Jaya Prakash Narayan. There was nothing like a Bombay Plan. As only intellectuals, not famed industrialists, were behind the idea.
The debates were enlightening. Decongestion of the cities must for better redistribution of wealth. Their gravitational pull could otherwise stretch income disparities. The centre-piece of the game-plan was to bar private property and reckless construction in major cities. To discourage city-based families breed and multiply.

Step one covered state capitals and even national capital, New Delhi. Eventually, industrial cities and port towns could follow. The main impetus for relocation coming from the revolution in transport. As for the national capital, the suggestion was to shift it to some place near Nagpur. Right at the centre of the continental-size country.

How to bell the cat? And who? The low-decibel debate never had its echo in the corridors of power. Everywhere it was business as usual a while after the Koyna went off the front pages. Gujarat will be no better.

Astrology scores
Modern science has not so far put in place a predictive formula for earthquakes. Maximum, it was able to divide earth into sensitive zones. Where the mischief can be more or less. When it comes to the exact time and place, it throws up its hands. For the record, however, at least one geologist called for an 'early re-classification' of the Indian zones on the eve of the Gujarat disaster. Following a series of mini quakes.

Animal behaviour is considered a better indicator. Reptiles, dogs, cattle etc. are, it is said, better endowed to pick up signals from the rumblings deep inside the earth. Again it defies being set into a readable pattern. Though anecdotic evidence is there aplenty.

In the thirties (1930s) for instance. The animals living in a Caribbean Island committed mass suicide by jumping into the ocean. For no explicable reason. A couple of days later, a killer quake struck. Claiming the life of the island's 34,000 population. Even so, keeping the animals under watch is no easy job.

This time, the astrologers have scored. Especially those lined up by The Week "to steal a peek" into 2001. Earthquakes even made it into its headlines. Along with the possibility of a shaky Vajpayee government.

Most of them predicted earthquakes during the year. A few were specific. Taking into account Saturn's transit in the constellation of Rohini (in the Sun sign Taurus). Mention of natural disasters in the Himalayan region. January was rated as a bad month uniformily. And at least one was bang on spot for the Gujarat catastrophe. A major environmental disaster (an earthquake or cyclone) was predicted to follow the invisible solar eclipse early in the month. Dalai Lama said the same thing. A year ago.

There is also a hint at Kodaikanal (a health resort in Tamil Nadu) turning into a volcano.

The Astrological Magazine, published from Bangalore was to the point with its forecasts. In its January 2000 issue dedicated its late editor B V Raman, it clearly warned of the earthquake. "Jupiter continues in the same sign until he becomes direct on 25-01-2001. Both these periods when Jupiter changes from direct and retrograde motion and vice versa, will affect weather patterns around the globe." At least, two major earthquakes, one along the region of north-east India and adjoining Afghanistan and another in central and south America cannot be ruled out about this time. 

After the earthquake, not surprisingly, astrologers were in a "we told you so" mood. Accusing fingers pointed at two major planetary movements. Jupiter and Saturn were in Taurus both before and after the seismic event. But both were in retrograde for months. And stationary for a while. The earth shook when they began their forward lurch.

It's unassailable logic. Though scientific proof is hard to be produced. The hypothesis comes, however, with convincing details. Saturn went direct at 4.23 pm on 25 January. And Jupiter followed at one hour and 3 minutes after midnight. The earthquake came at around 9 am on 26 January. That means two gigantic planets shifted trajectory in less than 17 hours. In the same sun-sign Taurus. This kind of thing happens once in every 2500 years.

When planets change direction, they release a lot of kinetic energy. Exerting incalculable pulling power all round. This time it was extra-ordinary. As the two planets were lodged in positions hostile to each other. The (affected) parts of Gujarat could not escape the fury as they fall within the domain of Taurus.

No safe spot
The Indian sub-continent is in the clutches of angry earth. For long only the Alpine-Himalayan zone was seen as high-risk. Now the fault line encircles even peninsular India.

Between 1897 and 1952, there were 49 major earthquakes. As many as five of them measured 8 plus on the Richter Scale. Others were less intense. The lowest logged 6.9 on the scale. Kutch was rocked in 1819.
Research findings see dams a culprit. Stored water seeping into earth's deeper layers could raise the pore-pressure. Inducing tremors in turn. Koyna quake that shook Mumbai (11 Dec 1967) came that way.

There are 4291 dams in India. Eleven of them in the Himalayan region. A few are located in critical areas. Tehri dam for instance. Turbal, Bakhra and Pong also in the most sensitive locations. South of Vindhyas, Mumbai is not the only place threatened by the Narmada zone cracks. Tamil Nadu Kerala and Karnataka are also at risk.

The Indian Meteorological Department has now reclassified the seismically active zones in the country. Under the new code, there will be only four zones. Not five as before. It takes into account the possibility of earthquake striking any where anytime in India.

The new system reduces the scope for miscalculations. As it "upgrades" even the zones so far deemed safe. In the process, Mumbai and Lathur are labelled as high activity zones. Everything points to disastrous century ahead. For the risk of a major earthquakes is very high. Once in every twenty years. That well is the seismic deduction.

Delhi first?
Mumbai is thus rated safer than Delhi and Kolkatta, under the new zoning system. Delhi joins Gujarat in zone 3, and Mumbai 4. Kolkatta comes in between. Gujrat and Mumbai in risk levels.

The real threat to Delhi comes from earthquakes with epicentres quite far away. The shaking, when it comes, will be severe in Delhi. The Gujarat quake shook the capital for a full minute. Yet another warning in late February. Then the whole of North India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia was hit by a quake centred in the Hindukush mountain ranges.

The danger for Delhi comes from its proximity to the 2400 km Himalayan aange where there were five major earthquakes in the past two centuries.

India's landmass moves north at the rate of four meters a century. Building up pressure between two tetonic plates. Three stretches of the arc have had no major tremors in the past 200 years. That increases the potential for a major quake.

All is known. According to a little noticed atlas prepared by the union government, more than half of India's landmass is earthquake-prone. Of this, 12 per cent could face tremors as severe as the one at Bhuj, 18 per cent faces the risk of Lathur like temblors while a fourth could face quake like the one in Jabalpur.

The Goddess of Earth, say the ancient scriptures, is the divine consort of the creator Himself. She is also identified as the embodiment of the twin qualities of patience and tolerance.

Mythology tells us that Mother Earth holds the globe aloft with a single hand. Earthquakes take place when she shifts the avoirdupois to the other. 

More prayerful among the homo sapiens are convinced that She gets angry when insult is heaped on Her. And injury inflicted. 

In other words disrespect for the environment. Earth quakes are one way to telling Her tenants to behave.

In this age of ascertainable sciences, readings are different. How the Himalayan range came up? It happened when the Indian plate collided with the Eurasian.

And the Indian plate is still pushing into Eurasia. Creating stresses which are released in the form of earthquakes. It took 15 earhtquakes, each measuring 8 on the Richter Scale to "rupture the entire length (2400 km) of the Himalayas."

Expect more quakes of magnitudes ranging upto 8.3 in the next few years. For geologists see stresses tightening in the Indian plate. And "sufficient stresses have accumulated to drive a magnitude - 8 earthquake", covering half of the Himalayas. So fasten your (and mine) seat-belts. 

How strong were the quakes? The estimates of energy released by the 1819 and 2001 quakes in Kutch were of the order of 225 mega (million) TNT. For comparison, the first atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, measured only 20,000 TNT.

Stock taking
Before it went under a shower of rubble, Gujarat was a gold mine for consumer goods industries. According to an official tally in 1998, its 1000 households had 1023 wrist watches, 347 pressure cookers, 650 TV sets, 637 ceiling fans, 234 mixies and 86 washing machines. As for refrigerators, there were 264. 201 two wheelers and 36 motor cars. The state has 9.18 million households. Nearly a third of them in urban areas.

Gujarat's agriculture is heavily mechanised. And so the state accounts for 9 per cent of the country's tractor population. Power generation is about a tenth of the all-India output. In joint stock companies, it has a share of 7 per cent.

As for bank deposits, it claims 6 per cent. Khandla is the second largest in India - after Mumbai. Road length is barely 3 per cent of the total. But 9 per cent of the vehicles registered in the country are in Gujarat.

It was not long ago, that Orissa, another state of the Indian Union, had a killer cyclone. But it was unlucky. Relief mobilisation then was a pale shadow of what it is now in Gujarat. The reasons are not far to seek.
Orissa is poor. Gujarat is at the other end of the scale. Orissa's per capita income is only $147. Gujarat's $354. only 22 per cent of its population is below poverty line. Half of Orissa population is BPL. With no major industry worth the name.

On the whole, the chances of Gujarat rising from the ashes are bright. Especially because of its massive diaspora. As many as 1.65 million Kutchis are settled outside the state.

The arithmetic of the Gujarat devastation is in the works. Inestimable, however, is the loss of life. For there is no way to cross-check the guess-estimated figures. Loss of property could top $6 billion. More at replacement cost.

Also incalculable is the moral damage. Gujarat is the second most industrialised state in India. And growing faster than the first one. With 4.9 per cent share in population, it account for 8 per cent of the GDP.
The quake's impact on India's growth is not more than 0.1 per cent. Says one school of thought. The fall-out from the 17 drought-hit districts earlier not taken into account. 

Writing in the Business Line, Prof.P R Brahmananda puts the issue in clear focus. In 1999-2000, the state's aggregate income was about $25 billion. The capital stock, approximately $125 billion. Roughly, 5 per cent of the population is affected. Assuming half of them lost their assets and property, the capital stock affected could work out to $5 billion. And the income flow hit comes to a billion dollars. 

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