Mahouts
or flunkeys?
How they wrecked the Reserve Bank
THE
SIX BLIND MEN AND THE elephant. How they "saw" it? All
heard/read the fairy tale. But here is a real life story, stranger
than that fiction. Of three mahouts who crippled the animal. Coming
one after the other. For the animal read the Reserve Bank of India
in the nineties. The rest falls in place. The pachyderm reduced to a
laughing stock. And the process is on.
RBI
is Mumbai-based. But the story must begin in Delhi where the mahouts
are appointed. For a broader picture, let us go to the US. On a
short yatra. Everyone heads there for clear view of Indian politics
and economy. No sojourn for us. Only a keyhole attempt. Can be back
soon.
Could
you name the diplomat/statesman of the second half of the 20th
century? An American columnist asked. And got busy finding an
answer. He kept off the first half of the century. As there the list
is long. Of candidates / claimants.
No
easy catch. A lot of weeding out. Finally eureka: Henry Kissinger.
Think tank of the Republican Party. Secretary of State under Richard
Nixon. Scholarly and articulate, he rose to the world's top job by
dint of merit.
He
was born in Germany. But that was no handicap for him. Thanks to his
intellectual incandescence. Easily, he took public opinion with him.
At crucial moments. Rapprochement with China, for instance. Then the
end of Vietnam war. Fielding the "wounding criticism" of
regional allies. The career was sadly cut short by the Water-gate
scandal. And the early exit of Nixon as President.
But
the US scribe did not give Kissinger full marks. '0' (for
outstanding) bulked large in the progress card entries. Even so, not
even digit marks for the dismal science. That cribbed his work
style. In his (the scribe's) opinion, a fair grounding in economics
is must to ensure the success of a diplomat/statesman.
Independent
India was lucky. At least for a while. Pundit Nehru was no formal
student of economics. But his wide reading made it up. And he
studied the subject well. With considerable ease he could explain
the essence of Fabian socialism and revolutionary communism. His
contribution is disputed. His zest for economic planning that time
saved the country. Otherwise it would have ended up as a banana
republic. But that is to digress.
Among
other prime ministers, Charan Singh had a thorough grasp of
agricultural economics. But he was gone before people could know
what he was upto. The literacy (economic) levels of those who
followed varied. But Indira Gandhi and son Rajiv were held in awe.
None in the officialdom (including the RBI chieftains) could take
them for granted. They had their way and not they theirs.
Come
the nineties, everything changed. For the worse. Narasimha Rao spoke
20 languages. And now it is even claimed that liberalisation was his
brain-child. Which, his Man Friday - Dr.Manmohan Singh - hijacked.
Dr.Singh could plot supply and demand curves but had no political
brain or base. So accountability received a short shrift everywhere.
Isolated in the party, his oracle was his colleagues in the
administration. With disastrous effect.
Ignore
the Janata Dal interlude. As the picture then was confusing. In
effect a farce, mirroring the split loyalties in coalition politics.
Deva Gowda took pride in declaring that he was a farmer first. But
there was no time for substantive decisions. Time and energy being
used up in survival exercises.
Finally,
we are with Atal Behari Vajpayee. And his instalment regime. Atalji
belies the old saying that only poets are born, orators are made.
For he is a born orator. That he speaks in Hindi does not minimise
his skills with words.
He
was a rage in the sixties. Not only he was forty years younger then.
Even radical youths flocked to the meetings addressed by him. If
only to listen to his "logical structure of arguments",
sparkling phrases and sledge-hammer deliveries. On par with Mark
Antony, Adolf Hitler and Winston Churchill. People commented. Near
home he was compared to Birendra Nath Tagore (of the old
Revolutionary Communist Party, with whom Pundit Nehru refused to
share a platform). And M.N.Roy, undoubtedly, one of the greatest
intellectuals of 20th century.
But
Vajpayee shares the Kissinger syndrome. With a contra-indication for
economics. Not an ideal situation. At times the country pays dearly
for it. For the record, worst harm to the banking sector was done
during his first round as prime minister. Those 13 days.
Short-sighted people / officialdom took full advantage. The
inexperience of those manning key departments came handy. The
industry lay in ruins.
The
overextended home-stretch to the main theme is to serve one purpose.
That is to trace the degradation of the Mint Road in Mumbai. A weak
political structure in New Delhi had much to do with it. Often
economic policy decisions lacked political finesse.
Back
to Mumbai. And how the paradise was lost in the 90s. When
R.N.Malhotra left it was the end of an era. He was the last of the
great governors of RBI. The high priests were appointed by the union
government. But each one of the governors earlier had a personality
larger than life. They were held in high esteem. (An emergency
period case being the only disgrace). And their word was law. And
perhaps the last word. After the high priests, it was the turn of
mahouts.
After
R.N.Malhotra, Mr. S. Venkataramanan came. On the face of it, he was
cut out for the job. A brilliant academic record combined with a
knack for active (political) campus life. A hero for generations of
students (of his University). His teachers wept when he joined the
civil service. As a science student he had the promise of blossoming
into, say, a Sreenivasa Ramanujam.
In
the civil service, however, he made his mark. Working behind the
scenes, he provided the blueprint for the green revolution. The
fertilizer industry owes its survival, in the present shape, to his
mastery of its issues.
But
Venkataramanan came to Mint Road under a cloud. Reward for services
rendered? Rumours ran wild in political circles. Reportedly, he
negotiated a few of the controversial contracts abroad. Even so, it
was hoped that he would deliver while at the helm of affairs of the
monetary authority. Being well-equipped.
But
he was a sad failure. The stocks scam broke out in his tenure. The
biggest and boldest swindle in the history of Indian capital market.
Could he plead innocence? Blissful ignorance is no hall-mark of an
RBI chief. But the question remains what the hell RBI was doing.
While everything went haywire. A couple of bull operators turned the
Bombay Stock Exchange into their playing field. Banking on, for
sustenance, the hermitically sealed securities market.
How
the stock scam arose? We will soon deal with that question.
Meanwhile, the scam was well parsed by experts and competent
journalists. To the uninitiated, there was no scope for
precautionary measures. Reprehensible, however, was the way RBI (and
MoF) saw, and reacted to, it. No one covered himself with glory.
Faith in key institutions (and their personnel) was lost for ever.
RBI
never investigated the run-away boom in shares. To mask its
insufficiency, it inspired stories. Some found large-scale diversion
of funds from commodities and bullion markets. Hard-sold also was
the view that at its root was the new-born confidence in economic
(and monetary) policies. And people began taking money out from
under their pillows. Dr.Singh's vision was wonderful. Claptrap all.
The
scam burst. Thanks only to a vigilant press. And not to the RBI and
its super brains. As it turned out, RBI was at fault. Did anyone own
up responsibility? The mahout in charge completed his contract term.
Attempts to save face by crucifying a few staff members fell flat.
With the unions threatening to expose one and all.
Far
away in the Delhi sultanate, things were no different. Everyone was
feeling thrilled. By the surging share market. Even after knowing
the banking system had lost a billion dollars or more. The finance
minister took it for granted that the market was only cheering him
on. And was even proud of it. So he wouldn't lose sleep over its
see-saw.
His
high-profile finance secretary was nonchalant. Both during and after
the scam. He is one who claims to have rewritten the country's rules
of economic development. True, the intricacies of the securities
market were Greek and Latin for him. But there was no effort to
learn what was what. He did not know (as many others) that the
banker's receipt could be misused. In fact he had no idea what it
even was. Interestingly he also said so at the parliamentary
committee hearings that took place much later.
Was
the scam avoidable? No doubt, it is a akin to theft and robbery.
Comes without notice. That was what RBI said. But a few loop-holes
could have been plugged. Steps taken a bit earlier were dropped in a
huff. The situation was such that mischief-makers could thrive. It
was testing time for the RBI. Both the 80s and 90s. Its obsolete
system was cracking up. Crying for early computerisation. The late
R.N.Malhotra, then Governor, set up a committee to push the
computerisation programme. The committee came up with an action
plan, which even defined both the hardware and software to be used.
Mark, only for the use of the commercial banks.
Naturally,
bank unions said go back. As it was not offered as a package. But
within RBI no road-block for computerisation plans. The public debt
department was at sixes and sevens. As the Deputy Governor and an
executive director, in charge of it, were fond only of wielding
tremendous power. They took it easy. No agenda for having computers
in the public debt department. Thus the fraud came.
Finally,
the banking system lost a billion dollars plus. The scam's first
casualty was not those who perpetrated it. Humiliated M.N.Goiporia,
who headed SBI, died broken hearted. Also skewered were a few
bankers. Others escaped. The golden rules of accountability were
given a go-by. There was not even a hint of remorse. To your
misfortune and ours, the culprits are on the prowl. Tendering
unsolicited advice on economic policies. Through newspaper columns.
What
price the scam? A billion dollar or more was what the system lost.
For the Indian economy as a whole, it set the clock back by several
years. That loss cannot be easily quantified. As it coincided with
the early experiments with liberalisation. But for the stock-scam
distraction, the economy would have taken a different course. It
gave rise to a feeling that frauds are a by-product of an open
economy. A monumental blow.
The
tragedy of errors continued. With the change of guard. The era of
doctors dawned with the arrival of Dr.C.Rangarajan. Till he
collected the baton and ankus, competence was qualifying factor. And
personality. The prefix Dr. was not must. Most governors came from
civil service. They did their work well. Dealing with the union
government on equal footing. And nobody dared to raise an accusing
finger. The Reserve Bank enjoyed virtual autonomy.
How
RBI worked under Dr. Rangarajan? An idea of the man would help make
an answer easy. Just a couple of references will do. That too after
his exit from the animal's back. From Mint Road Dr.Rangarajan was
shifted to the Raj Bhavan in Hyderabad. Unfortunately it was also
the time when the cotton farmers in Andhra Pradesh were committing
suicide. As many as 500 of them had gone in a few months. All were
aghast. The press was eager to know how and why it happened.
Expected a windfall when the great economist came to address a
meeting. The media was heavily present. Assured of an insightful
copy. But the Dr. let all down.
The
cotton farmer's plight never figured in his peroration. Instead, he
started howling on monetary ratios. That nobody was in a mood for
them did not deter him. Attempts to get him aside for a chat on the
burning issue of Andhra Pradesh did not succeed. He was not bothered
by such small things.
As
the story goes, almost the same thing occurred when he visited the
Hyderabad prison on the Telugu New year day recently. Decked up in
his funeral garb, he offered darsan to the ill-clad prisoners. One
of them proved smarter. A naxlite internee. He was all set to engage
the governor in his (governor's) terms. What Rangarajan had to say
on the World Bank policies and their impact on India? Anxious to get
the VIP back home in one piece, an alert security whisked him away.
The
enforced (called "unaccustomed") retreat at Raj Bhavan has
not dulled Rangarajan's knack for hooking media for pally comments.
A recent review of his "Perspectives on Indian Economy" is
an example. His foul-up on foreign exchange at RBI is forgotten. Or
well-hidden. So he gets anointed as a "highly cerebral"(?)
economist and as a "sentinel of price and exchange stability in
a demanding new milieu of liberalisation". Such words are sold
in the name of book reviews! In standard newspapers. Match-fixing
days after all.
How
Dr.Rangarajan fared as RBI mahout? There was an abundant supply of
ratios. But the apex bank's efficiency and reputation hit the
bottom. The staff knew him in his earlier avatar as Deputy Governor.
And those were the days of credit authorisation scheme. CAS for
short. It vested RBI with powers to clear big loans. Purpose still
unknown. Some saw it a way to institutionalise corruption in
banking.
For
this or that, Rangarajan had little or no appeal with the lower
ranks. Nil commanding power. That encouraged some deputy governors
and executive directors to behave more like satraps. Caste
considerations also came to the fore. Unthinkable earlier. Woe to
banks not headed by people with blue blood. Played cat and mouse
with the untermenschen.
Fast-growing
banks had more to fear. Foreign deposits were encouraged. But
permission came selectively. Often credit-deposit ratios were
spoiled that way. The Mint Road minions deriving vicarious pleasure.
When call rates boiled up. And the expected signal for overseas
deposits not coming.
The
Rangarajan regime is better remembered for the mass annihilation of
depositors. With RBI harping on multi-agency system for credit (and
deposit collections), NBFCs had a field day. There was no
supervision worth the name. Rules and laws remained in the rule
book. And changed frequently. Creating confusion and more confusion.
Hard earned savings went up in smoke. The depositors could only
curse the authorities. No redressal came. The grave-digging for such
sublime bodies as 'Nidhis' also began about this time.
At
the junior levels, RBI officers were worried. Where the apex bank
was heading? Everyone was nervous when licences for new (private)
banks flowed out. For, by then, everyone was thinking globally. The
watchword was consolidation. The nationalised banks were praying
(silently) for a re-ordered framework.
RBI,
with the new mahout up, had no time for such agreeable thoughts. It
wanted private banks in. To teach the public sector banks quality
lessons. The priorities at that point of time should have been
different The banks had completed the branch expansion schedule. And
awaiting a booster dose. A little attention then. And the problems
that visited them later on would not have arisen.
In
fact RBI had accepted the principle of consolidation. Both in theory
and practice. That was how many a (tottering) private banks were
merged with nationalised banks. The question of weeding out
overlapping (an unviable) bank branches was very much alive. That
was well before the mahouts began dirtying the shack.
At
the RBI, however, the banking (licences) counter was open. And
gushing. Even as the scales were going up in world banking. And none
in his senses, would have set up a bank. Not even Bill Gates. But
the local Gates had other ideas. Frankly, there was no urge to run a
bank. Few were up to the mark. The undisclosed plan was to sell up.
To a foreign bank. As time went by.
So no price was big. And sceptics proved right. Banks licensed then
are disappearing. In mergers and acquisitions. Soon more will go.
None of the banks licensed by Rangarajan will be around after a few
more years. How it happened? We can only guess. At any rate, the mad
race halted with the crash of CRB Finance.
The
CRBF fiasco was a blessing in disguise. In fact an eye-opener too.
Its promoter was not rated high. Yet he landed the licence. Everyone
could see through. The science of probability was working. The media
was unsparing. Both RBI and SEBI were taken to task. For gross
dereliction of duty.
No
explanation was officially called for or given. Everyone took it in
stride. The controversy died down. SEBI and RBI were the only
visible links. In the long chain of responsibility. The depositors
with the company were left high and dry. The issue of a bank licence
misled them. Was it not a clean chit from RBI? All clear in no time.
Leaving Rangarajan to pick up a new set of ratios.
Few
took seriously Rangarajan's credentials as an economist. In a light
vein, though, the junior RBI officers - most of them dedicated
economists - were for calling up his answer papers. In economics.
For revaluation. The call became shrill after he messed up on
interest rates. Behaving more like King Canute. The once-great
institution held in ridicule.
For
the background. P.Chidambaram was finance minister. Even before he
came on the scene, liberalisation measures had lost their momentum.
Mainly because of election years. And he wanted it restored. There
was only way for him to do it. A business-friendly budget. Short of
a negative income tax, he gave everything to energise the economy.
But
investments never responded. By that time global markets had cast
their spell on entrepreneurs. Tariff walls were crumbling.
Profitability calculations were not the same as before. Once again
it was proved that budget had limitations. Vis - a - vis the
economy. All were worried.
It
was a tempting state of affairs for Rangarajan. He thought he could
do it on his own. And earn the plumes. He lowered the interest
rates. And assured more liquidity for the system. It was possibly
what he read (not digested) in his old books on economics. Low
interest rates meant more investments. Auto-pilot takes over. And
everything fine.
It
was an ill-timed move. Fatal too. Rangarajan was guilty of an
isolated (oversimplified) view of Indian economy. Elsewhere then the
Asian crisis was rocking the world. The tiger economies were putting
up interest rates by day. To protect their currencies. Overnight
rates were rising sky-high. Rangarajan saw nothing of those things.
Naturally rupee came under unprecedented speculative pressure. And
the country lost two billion dollars in foreign exchange. In just
one week. If it were the commercial banks, the RBI would have sent
its Gestapo to hound them out.
It
was too much for New Delhi. Rangarajan was eased out. For courtesy,
he was offered a berth as governor of Andhra Pradesh. Little scope
for ratios. Only the State's ebullient chief minister accepted him.
The State legislators were unenthusiastic. No patience for monetary
theories while the farmers back in their constituencies took their
lives.
At
the earliest opportunity they gave vent to their displeasure. The
printed copies of his first address to the State legislature were
thrown at him. He was even struck on his face, though with a folded
paper. Rangarajan swallowed it all and stayed on. To fashion more
ratios.
For
the record, the Asian crisis had no direct impact on Indian economy.
But for the reduced interest rates that enticed speculative hordes.
Even so, the claim that it was the superior monetary management that
saved India is nonsense. The Indian economy was unaffected because
it was weak. With nil vibrancy.
The
evidence comes from the comparative revival trends in Asia. Recovery
is faster in most Asian nations which were down and out not long
ago. But whither Indian economy? It remains as sluggish as ever.
From
the frying pan
IT
WAS a quiet arrival for the new mahout. With a brief to correct the
thoughtless experiments earlier. A question only of signing on the
dotted line. Before entering Mint Road, Dr.Bimal Jalan made a vain
bid to join the big league of great economists. With a book. Raving
reviews were also managed. Most reviewers never went beyond the
blurb. The stuff inside being insipid. It made no splash. So its
author.
Jalan
is a softie. A living example of an old saying that saints are as
good as outlaws. He was clearly appalled by the size and the
cross-word puzzles of his fiefdom. For administration, he obeyed
orders. Delhi decided on appointments, promotion and transfers. Of
even CMDs at the banks under RBI control.
It
did not take Jalan long to realise that RBI's resident economists
were a lot smarter. Than him. Few wasted time to write books and
chased reviewers. But they indeed took out in-house papers / studies
/ notes useful as road-map for policy frame-work. Each of them
weightier than the books the mahouts authored.
The
facts and figures for a revamp of the country's credit/ banking
system were there. X-ray analyses of each and every aspect of the
issue. A full-dimensional picture of history and geography of banks
and banking. Also blueprint(s) awaiting execution.
Dr.Jalan
would have none of it. The presence of so many knowing the tricks
(of the animal) struck only awe in the mahout. It bred no pride.
Only a sort of inferiority complex. He was impatient to show no work
was done, before him. So he commissioned a working group, better
known as Verma Panel. It got away with a rehash of the material
already available. (We dealt with the report our earlier editions)
As
a report (by a high-power group) it was less than mediocre. But it
did real damage. If Rangarajan had demoralised the banking industry,
the Verma Panel paralysed it. Declaring that no bank is safe. The
whole system recoiled. If it is unsafe, whose mistake? Who rubbished
the animal? The mahouts or others? Or was it a subtle move designed
to foster foreign and private banks?
One
thing came out of it all. Dr.Jalan does not know the ABC of banking.
Better not said central banking. Especially its delicate structure
and psychology. Like his immediate predecessor, who also wrote books
- and fixed friendly reviews. Together they let go everything great
about the great institution called the Reserve Bank of India. The
faith in the system was irretrievably lost. For the banks are no
better than retainers. No life outside the system with RBI at the
top. Powerless to react. Let alone hit back. They could only suffer
in silence. Like chained dogs being beaten by the master.
Does
Dr.Jalan need a metaphor to catch the point? If so, here is one. It
is like paying a street goon to outrage the modesty of the junior
member of one's family. Dr.Jalan failed miserably in defending the
sanctity of the credit system. Which even the unruly media took
pains to respect and protect. Over the years. Read on.
Parliamentary
probe
TIME FOR the operative part. After a dreary trip through the
wreckage of the Reserve Bank of India. The past ten years more than
shook the apex bank. The idols fell off the tripod. Broken to
pieces. Values destroyed. Incalculable harm in store. Without early
corrective steps.
At
the end of it all, RBI is not what it was. Or what it should be.
Human failure? Or systemic fault? Or both? Or the one feeding on the
other? Why the system failed? And how? More questions should we go
deeper.
What
happened was unpardonable. It was no mere error of judgement. For
irrational behaviour marked every stage. Mistakes after mistakes.
Triggering huge losses. The people being mute sufferers. While
groaning under taxation and high living costs. Those in key roles
taking it easy. Lip service to accountability notwithstanding.
The
infirmities of the apex bank and its charge-hands are thus there.
Other things too came to light in the past few years. Almost
everyone thunders on restructuring. While nothing is being done.
Remarks ex-cathedra are most misleading. Yashwant Sinha's budget
speech is one example. Public sector banks were not for sale, he
asserted. Adding, in the same breath, that the government's stake in
them would be axed. A statement liable to diverse interpretations.
No
fresh evidence needed. So much loose ends. Pointing to disaster
ahead. Banking industry is adrift. Lacking direction. Bleak future.
Unsolicited comments form extra-constitutional centres make it
worse. High time that a sense of balance is restored. The only
institution that can do the job is the parliament. No room for
procrastination. Far too late otherwise. The world changing fast.
An
enquiry into the working of the Reserve Bank of India in the
nineties will serve as a starting point. For it was at that point
time the system began wobbling. Then a host of other issues. One is
the repeated call for privatisation. The global market is asserting
itself. Calling for repositioning the banking industry. Also to be
examined is the question of a check on the monetary authority. By
parliament. Last, but not the least, is a role of the State
governments in the administration of monetary policy. If only to put
more concrete into the country's federal set-up.
Must
the banks be returned to the private sector? It is a fact that the
world over the banks are privately controlled. The central bank in
each country exercising effective control. But it is not an ideal
situation everywhere. The level of culture and degree of
sophistication mark them out. Frauds are dealt with under criminal
law. Commercial decisions, at the same time, are a moral
responsibility. Internal checks and balances take care of the
system.
A
European bank invested $700 million in a controversial hedge fund.
It went bad recently. The chairman resigned. That was all. Indian
banks will take ages to reach that level. A powerful board of
directors is the major asset of foreign banks. In India, so far,
only flunkeys get a chance.
As
it is, the parliament should think, not twice, but hundred times,
before handing over the control of banks to the private sector. So
soon.
A
little bit of history should drive home the point. What shape the
Indian banks when they were taken over in 1969? It was widely known
that at least eight or nine banks would have folded up. If left
alone. The sick list included even a premier bank in Bombay. It was
controlled by a major industrial house known for its integrity and
efficiency. Though deprived of social status, many a bank management
greeted nationalisation as a blessing in disguise.
How
good the private sector elsewhere? In a memorable speech in the
early 80s, the late JRD Tata bewailed the delay in freeing up the
economy. Otherwise, the Indian industry would not attain maturity,
he said. As it has turned out, Indian industrialists are afraid of
going anywhere near the international markets with their wares.
Because of poor quality, nil service and low grade salesmanship.
They also could not make a success of even the finance companies,
which given the rigidity of bank credit, had the whole world before
them.
The
non-performing assets with the banking industry also tell a gruesome
tale. The nationalised banks in the early days had to grapple with
the bad loans load from private industries. The wholesale
nationalisation of the companies engaged in engineering, coal, steel
and textile added to their owes. Large and medium industries account
for bulk of the NPAs. On a rough estimate, 60 to 70 per cent of the
total. As for small scale industries the number of genuine
defaulters is more. Even so, the blame went to small loans to
socially handicapped. Though they led to, according to leading
bankers, far less social damage.
Even
so, privatisation is constant refrain even among leader-writers.
What assurance that privatisation, per se, will lead to qualitative
changes. Even the tiger economies came to grief because of the
mismanagement of banks in private hands. Same in Japan. On the final
count, privatisation is unavoidable. Meanwhile scope for a lot of
vacuum-cleaning. And injecting a high dose of professionalism.
Autonomy
for the central bank is another topic of debate. In practice, the
country has a tradition of respecting the independence of the
central bank. There was no interference (but only support to) with
the bank's functioning even after it became clear it was on wrong
track in the nineties.
How
much independence can be there for a central bank? In the new scheme
of things, indications are that MoF and central banks, already
endangered species, will disappear in the next few decades. For the
simple reason that their isolated existence will become archaic.
Short term it may be different. However, not to put off is the
question of placing the apex monetary authority under a regular
review by the parliament. So far only the finance ministry speaks up
to the elected bodies. That emboldened the Reserve Bank and its
erring CEOs to escape the clutches of law in the last decade. More
than its independence, it is this issue that should receive
immediate attention by the law makers.
India's
constitution is federal. But weighted in favour of the centre in
functional finance and monetary policy. The State governments are
not allowed anywhere near that hallowed area. The elected
representatives in the States put up with the upper caste approach
of the Reserve Bank . Take for instance Bengal. For years it was
leading in industrial growth. Faulty policies (enunciated in Delhi)
shattered its industry. On its part the RBI broke the back-bone of
its banking system. And recently, when the State was getting its act
together, RBI branded one more of its banks terminally ill.
In
the South, Tamil Nadu is going to bear the brunt of RBI's
death-dance. Of late the State attracted a good deal of foreign
investments. That excited only envy in some quarters. RBI promptly
despatched its paid-agents and doubled to two, the number of sick
banks in the State. With two banks (both major with 1000 branches in
the State) immobilised, TN's development plans are in disarray. Such
deductions are inevitable.
Subhas
Bose called moguls, the then Congress High Command. For taking
decisions inimical to the interests of people in fall flung areas.
As of now, people come out with rail / rasta roko agitations to
register their displeasure at non-popular measures. A storm over
larger issues can yield more than newsworthy pictures.
All
these and more should form the focus of the parliamentary probe (and
debate). We are not suggesting any inquisition. However, if the
crimes committed by those at the helm of affairs in RBI, in the
nineties, are not attracting the Criminal Procedure Code, the code
itself should be looked into. Like the Constitution.
A
no-holes-barred investigation by the supreme legislature is
necessary on all counts. It will, in the first place, end the long
night of the decline and fall of the Reserve Bank of India. And also
put life and energy into the most vital segment of the Indian
economy.
The
story over, an in-house dissent came up. Wrong to call the RBI
arch-dukes mahouts. For mahouts are a respectable lot. Knowing their
ward well. Its anatomy and psychology. And, above all, the rapport.
Why
not flunkey? If the mahout is the driver, flunkey is the cleaner. Of
the animal. With an appropriate mind-set. May be so, but not
suggestive enough. So, mahout is okay.
Learn
from the rival
The Vajpayee government should take a lesson or two from its arch
rival Mr.V.P.Singh. On the soft sale of hard economic policies.
Coming naked most decisions tend to hurt its image.
Yashwant
Sinha is exhibit No 1. In his roll-back mode. Amplified by the
dilemma over PDS and petroleum products prices.
The
'faux pas' over FII taxation also clashes with its 'swedeshi'
spirit. Was government kowtowing before the mighty agencies?
Otherwise why there were three explanatory notes in as many days.
And trouble shooters came to Mumbai, post-haste to unwind the
outraged fund managers. Though India, according to one ruling party
MP, is losing upto $7 million a year.
V.P.Singh
knew his job. Schooled in power politics. Noted how he got away with
a pro-rich budget? Poor packaging skills, after all, is India's
major weakness in exports.
Modern
Nero?
Nero is synonym for beastly indifference. The ruler of the Roman
Empire played on his fiddle while the capital was aflame. Worse, he
ordered a new palace built. And furniture and fittings inlaid with
gold. The reconstruction of the burnt city could wait.
Recently,
there was a clear echo of what Nero did. Andhra Pradesh is reeling
under severe drought. Scary TV footage. Everyone is worried. In the
villages, more farmers embrace death.
The
State governor also went to Delhi. Not to line up relief measures.
But to speak on "a managed foreign exchange rate''. A subject
better left to the better-equipped RBI economists.
For
Rangarajan it is typical. He needs a calamity to inspire him with
his ratios. And acres of dry barn fields littered with carcasses.
For
the record, Nero took hemlock to escape execution. The Roman Senate
had ordered him to be stoned to death.
Banks
and the media
HOW THE media saw and dealt with the nation's banking system? Our
concern only with those specialising in finance. Elsewhere the
interest being notional.
It
had been a special relationship. Not for favours. The apex bank was
revered. On par with the First Estate. Its ways and means never came
up for questioning. No interpretations even. Press notes were
reproduced. With only minimum touches. Everything was at it was. Nil
access. Unless called. But few complaints.
As
for banks, the same story. The credit system had its aura of
sanctity. Discussion of (or reference to) individual credit
decisions was taboo. Still so. The precepts were clear. Unambiguous.
Focus only on averages. Of deposits growth, recovery or NPAs. Above
average fine. Below it, sub-optimal. Nothing more.
Banks
in trouble were never played upon. There was the benefit of doubt.
No sympathy for mismanagement, however. The system was well
insulated - by the media. Otherwise, the domino effect could ruin
all. A sort of self-censorship. Keeping in view the larger interests
of the country. Just two examples.
It
was in the sixties. Before nationalisation. There was a run on a
bank. The bank had its head office close to the Bombay Stock
Exchange. The serpentine queues before its city (Mumbai) branches
were far too lengthy to go unnoticed. The word of mouth spread. It
was talk of the town for the day.
No
newspaper sent a photographer or a reporter to the spot. Even for a
routine coverage. The RBI, its management then in abler hands,
rushed funds to the beleaguered bank. The run ran out in a couple of
days or three.
There
was even a reference to the bank's plight in the parliament. The
finance minister offered to investigate the source of mischief. His
statement was reported by the news agencies. And newspapers. But
without the name of the bank.
On
to the eighties. A nationalised bank was in an aggressive mood,
collecting deposits. It broke records. But it was no fun to deploy
the funds mopped up so fast. How then to service the liabilities?
The call rate was capped at 10 per cent. The bank needed a return of
20 per cent to break even. Its CMD, his skills honed in foreign
exchange, saw a way out. The needy banks had to take twice more than
what they sought. Using only half of the amount. But interest
payment for full. Thus it tidied up 20 per cent.
The
other strategy was to buy or sell government securities at
"appropriate" rates. Again 20 per cent return was the aim.
It went on for a while. Until the Reserve Bank cried foul. Luckily
for the bank, the government came out with tax free bonds. The yield
on the new breed of bonds was 19 per cent. Enough then to take care
of its idle funds.
There
was no urge ever on part of the media to 'expose' the banking
industry. Or the Reserve Bank. The secrecy of bank dealings was
undisputed. As a golden, though unwritten, rule. The securities
market was considered a bed chamber. No entry for you and us. Access
only to banks and their brokers. Harshad Mehta knew it well. And
exploited it in full. Draining the SBI to the tune of $200 million.
Nearly 2 per cent of the industry's total NPA. Tax payers lost. Not
the SBI brass.
Down
the years, the press also checked its ubiquitous over enthusiasm for
scoop stories. When it came to RBI's majesty and goodwill. One such
in the sixties. 1966 to be precise. The government was under
pressure from the Bretton Wood twins to devalue the rupee. T T
Krishnamachari, then finance minister, said no. To save the
situation, he slapped a 10 per cent additional duty on imports. But
the pressure was far from over.
The
question was taken up in right earnest by Sachin Chaudhary who
succeeded TTK. At an AICCI session in Mumbai the new finance
minister consulted with his predecessor. The late Shantilal C Shah,
the legendary commercial editor of the rumbustious Free Press
Journal, got it all in his antenna. And he knew exactly when the
flash would come.
Even
so, Mr.Shah did not rush to the press with his, probably, life-time
scoop. He was worried that the needle of suspicion would embarrass
his RBI friends. Especially, the late P.C.Bhattacharya, then
governor. And perhaps the only "insider" in Mumbai.
The
media persons are an irresponsible lot. Loyal only to their sources.
A good story takes precedence over parents even. But there was
consideration for RBI's good name. And of banks. Everyone feared the
seismic fall-out. So all looked away even when things were rotting
up there. At the RBI control room that elementary sense of
responsibility has been missing for long. |